You are forecasting against the wrong number.
By the time a deal shows up as a signed contract you have two to four weeks before kickoff. That is not enough time to hire. It is barely enough time to staff the project correctly.
The number you should be planning against.
Sales has a quota. That quota represents the implementation demand your team will need to absorb if Sales hits their number.
Most PS leaders do not plan against the sales quota. They plan against the pipeline. Those are different things and the gap between them is where capacity surprises come from.
Pipeline is what Sales thinks they will close. Quota is what they are being held to. A PS leader who only looks at pipeline is planning against Sales optimism. A PS leader who plans against quota is planning against what the business needs to be true.
What you need to do this properly.
You need three numbers. The sales quota for the next two to three quarters. The average deal size for your implementation work. And the average implementation effort per deal in hours or weeks by deal type.
With those three numbers you can build a demand estimate that is independent of what is actually in the pipeline right now. That estimate tells you what your team needs to be able to absorb if the business hits its targets.
Compare that to your current capacity. The gap is your hiring window.
Why most PS teams do not do this.
The inputs are not always easy to get. Sales does not always share quota data with PS. Finance does not always break down deal size by implementation complexity.
But the conversation is worth having. A PS leader who can walk into a planning meeting and say here is what we need to be able to absorb if we hit our number and here is what we currently have capacity for is operating at a different level than one who is reacting to signed contracts.
Start with what you have.
You do not need perfect data to start. Use your last twelve months of deal data to estimate average implementation effort by deal type. Use your current headcount and utilization to estimate available capacity. Use the sales plan as the demand input.
The model does not need to be exact. It needs to be directionally right and built on inputs your leadership team can interrogate.
Want a template to build this?
Download the Sales Demand Intake template below. It walks you through capturing the inputs you need and building a demand baseline your team can plan against.
Start for free at app.cadenceops.io/signup